Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2242 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 2242 BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest B6 1897 BOS 21:19 → ATL 00:23 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2242 Delta Flight history →	BOS 05:30	ATL 08:21	4%	1%	0.6%	96%
DL 695 Delta Flight history →	BOS 06:45	ATL 09:34	7%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 456 Delta Flight history →	BOS 09:05	ATL 11:55	7%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 923 Delta Flight history →	BOS 08:00	ATL 10:51	8%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 385 Delta Flight history →	BOS 10:15	ATL 13:04	10%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 2779 Delta Flight history →	BOS 12:30	ATL 15:21	13%	4%	0.7%	84%
DL 322 Delta Flight history →	BOS 13:55	ATL 16:49	13%	4%	0.6%	80%
DL 638 Delta Flight history →	BOS 15:10	ATL 18:10	16%	6%	1.7%	80%
DL 2464 Delta Flight history →	BOS 17:55	ATL 21:07	19%	9%	1.3%	75%
DL 973 Delta Flight history →	BOS 19:10	ATL 22:24	21%	10%	1.3%	81%
F9 3511 Frontier Flight history →	BOS 12:56	ATL 15:51	22%	7%	1.2%	69%
B6 1397 JetBlue	BOS 13:53	ATL 16:54	28%	9%	0.8%	no record
B6 1897 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 21:19	ATL 00:23	33%	16%	0.8%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON