Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1410 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 1410 BOS 06:30 → AUS 09:44 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest WN 614 BOS 16:27 → AUS 19:54 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1410 Delta Flight history →	BOS 06:30	AUS 09:44	8%	2%	0.6%	85%
B6 1439 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 10:00	AUS 13:44	19%	5%	0.7%	88%
DL 1297 Delta Flight history →	BOS 15:45	AUS 19:09	23%	7%	0.6%	76%
WN 614 Southwest	BOS 16:27	AUS 19:54	28%	9%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	BOS 13:02 → DFW 16:10AA 1438	1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:21 → AUS 18:22AA 3722 · flown by Envoy	6h 20m	85%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON