Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 5778 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 09:36	AVL 12:03	10%	3%	0.8%	100%worse than usual
G4 1857 Allegiant	BOS 11:36	AVL 14:04	16%	6%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	1h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 09:04 → AVL 12:24DL 2181	6h 29m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	BOS 06:45 → ATL 09:34DL 695	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 12:25 → AVL 13:21DL 1182	6h 36m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 10:04 → AVL 11:09DL 3059	5h 39m	100%	84%
American Details →	BOS 07:01 → LGA 08:25AA 4470 · flown by Republic	3h 50m New York	LGA 12:15 → AVL 14:25AA 4418 · flown by Republic	7h 24m	99%	82%
American Details →	BOS 05:10 → ORD 07:04AA 3324	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 08:14 → AVL 11:06AA 3963 · flown by Envoy	5h 56m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	BOS 15:10 → ATL 18:10DL 638	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 21:30 → AVL 22:32DL 3116	7h 22m	97%	75%
American Details →	BOS 08:05 → CLT 10:30AA 2715	3h 32m Charlotte	CLT 14:02 → AVL 15:08AA 5588 · flown by PSA	7h 03m	95%	75%
Delta Details →	BOS 13:55 → ATL 16:49DL 322	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 19:46 → AVL 20:52DL 2037	6h 57m	99%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON