Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3902 at 09:22 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 3902 BOS 09:22 → BNA 11:13 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3969 BOS 17:17 → BNA 19:08 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3902 Southwest	BOS 09:22	BNA 11:13	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2141 Delta Flight history →	BOS 09:30	BNA 11:21	11%	3%	0.6%	79%
B6 1807 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:15	BNA 08:06	12%	3%	0.7%	88%
WN 1368 Southwest	BOS 12:57	BNA 14:48	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
B6 407 JetBlue	BOS 13:44	BNA 15:43	22%	8%	0.8%	no record
DL 2586 Delta Flight history →	BOS 16:44	BNA 18:41	23%	7%	0.6%	60%
WN 3969 Southwest	BOS 17:17	BNA 19:08	31%	10%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON