Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 4666 at 08:14 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 4666 BOS 08:14 → BUF 10:03 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 715 BOS 18:00 → BUF 19:47 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4666 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:14	BUF 10:03	6%	2%	0.7%	94%
YX 5864 Republic	BOS 11:04	BUF 12:46	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
B6 1215 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:38	BUF 10:20	11%	3%	0.8%	91%
YX 4439 Republic	BOS 13:41	BUF 15:34	11%	4%	1.0%	no record
B6 915 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 12:05	BUF 13:52	16%	5%	1.1%	75%
B6 715 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 18:00	BUF 19:47	26%	11%	1.1%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON