Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 786 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 786 BOS 05:25 → BWI 07:06 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 793 BOS 19:02 → BWI 20:45 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 786 Southwest	BOS 05:25	BWI 07:06	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 5668 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 09:31	BWI 11:13	5%	2%	0.7%	84%
WN 2022 Southwest	BOS 09:07	BWI 10:50	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 981 Southwest	BOS 00:09	BWI 01:31	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 5644 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:05	BWI 19:02	10%	5%	0.8%	79%
WN 1106 Southwest	BOS 12:02	BWI 13:45	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 294 Southwest	BOS 15:12	BWI 16:55	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 792 Southwest	BOS 17:42	BWI 19:30	19%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 793 Southwest	BOS 19:02	BWI 20:45	20%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON