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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 05:55, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Bozeman on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303 2h 55m Minneapolis MSP 10:59 → BZN 12:35DL 2946 8h 40m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → BOS 06:05 → SLC 09:17DL 859 1h 28m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BZN 12:05DL 1971 8h 00m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 11:18 → BZN 13:20DL 406 9h 50m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → BOS 07:45 → DEN 10:19UA 647 3h 11m Denver DEN 13:30 → BZN 15:18UA 513 9h 33m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → BOS 07:20 → LAX 10:36UA 360 2h 14m Los Angeles LAX 12:50 → BZN 16:24UA 2212 11h 04m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → BOS 11:15 → SLC 14:23DL 464 1h 28m Salt Lake City SLC 15:51 → BZN 17:14DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 7h 59m 94% 84%
UnitedDetails → BOS 06:00 → ORD 07:58UA 1414 1h 12m Chicago ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224 7h 44m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → BOS 14:52 → MSP 17:05DL 1127 1h 05m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → BZN 19:44DL 2954 6h 52m 91% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON