Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 5670 at 08:35 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 5670 BOS 08:35 → CHS 11:14 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 267 BOS 13:52 → CHS 16:27 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5670 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:35	CHS 11:14	12%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 8919 Delta	BOS 10:12	CHS 12:45	17%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 2785 Delta Flight history →	BOS 11:45	CHS 14:18	18%	5%	0.9%	80%
B6 567 JetBlue	BOS 09:30	CHS 12:06	22%	5%	0.7%	no record
B6 267 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 13:52	CHS 16:27	26%	9%	0.8%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON