Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 5641 at 09:55 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 5641 BOS 09:55 → CLE 12:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest B6 1341 BOS 18:11 → CLE 20:19 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5641 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 09:55	CLE 12:00	7%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 5655 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 16:05	CLE 18:20	14%	4%	0.7%	62%
B6 641 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 15:27	CLE 17:37	17%	6%	0.7%	85%
B6 1341 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 18:11	CLE 20:19	24%	11%	0.8%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON