Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 418 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 418 BOS 06:05 → CLT 08:30 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 922 BOS 18:02 → CLT 20:22 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 418 American Flight history →	BOS 06:05	CLT 08:30	8%	2%	0.7%	96%
DL 5626 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:18	CLT 10:42	11%	3%	1.0%	89%
AA 2715 American Flight history →	BOS 08:05	CLT 10:30	14%	3%	0.9%	88%
DL 5630 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 13:48	CLT 16:25	14%	4%	1.3%	88%
AA 1742 American	BOS 07:23	CLT 09:48	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 5837 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:30	CLT 20:19	16%	6%	1.0%	80%
AA 1557 American Flight history →	BOS 11:40	CLT 13:53	27%	5%	0.7%	96%worse than usual
AA 885 American Flight history →	BOS 15:43	CLT 18:01	29%	8%	0.8%	85%worse than usual
AA 1270 American	BOS 13:36	CLT 15:52	31%	7%	1.6%	no record
AA 922 American Flight history →	BOS 18:02	CLT 20:22	36%	10%	0.9%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON