Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 5–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5654 BOS 09:11 → CMH 11:27 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 4641 BOS 19:39 → CMH 22:01 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5654 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 09:11	CMH 11:27	5%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 5629 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 16:20	CMH 18:44	10%	5%	0.8%	72%
MQ 3922 Envoy	BOS 11:22	CMH 13:34	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4641 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 19:39	CMH 22:01	15%	6%	0.8%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON