Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 4342 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 4342 BOS 07:01 → DCA 09:04 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest B6 1955 BOS 17:20 → DCA 19:08 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4342 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 07:01	DCA 09:04	6%	2%	0.7%	85%
DL 5692 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 07:25	DCA 09:21	6%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 5592 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 10:03	DCA 11:57	7%	2%	0.7%	85%
AA 1160 American	BOS 08:33	DCA 10:27	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 5672 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 12:35	DCA 14:27	9%	3%	0.8%	85%
B6 1055 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:13	DCA 10:13	9%	4%	0.8%	86%
DL 5689 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 15:51	DCA 17:56	11%	4%	0.9%	69%
AA 1164 American	BOS 10:18	DCA 12:08	11%	4%	0.8%	no record
YX 4510 Republic	BOS 13:57	DCA 16:04	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 5667 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 18:06	DCA 20:00	15%	6%	1.2%	63%
MQ 9873 Envoy	BOS 15:05	DCA 16:48	16%	5%	2.0%	no record
AA 1004 American Flight history →	BOS 19:29	DCA 21:22	20%	8%	0.9%	58%
AA 1421 American Flight history →	BOS 17:41	DCA 19:39	20%	8%	1.1%	52%
B6 755 JetBlue	BOS 14:15	DCA 16:14	20%	9%	1.0%	no record
B6 2255 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 18:08	DCA 20:08	25%	12%	1.0%	61%
B6 1955 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 17:20	DCA 19:08	27%	14%	1.2%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON