Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 801 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 801 BOS 05:20 → DEN 07:48 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 803 BOS 16:07 → DEN 18:43 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 801 Southwest	BOS 05:20	DEN 07:48	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 2348 United	BOS 09:26	DEN 12:09	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 647 United Flight history →	BOS 07:45	DEN 10:19	9%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 499 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:45	DEN 10:21	10%	2%	0.6%	85%
UA 414 United Flight history →	BOS 12:22	DEN 14:53	10%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 2297 United Flight history →	BOS 15:10	DEN 17:55	15%	6%	0.6%	86%
B6 393 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 09:08	DEN 11:50	16%	4%	0.7%	79%
WN 803 Southwest	BOS 16:07	DEN 18:43	33%	5%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	1h 02m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113	6h 17m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	56m Minneapolis	MSP 09:00 → DEN 10:09DL 2849	6h 14m	95%	85%
United Details →	BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734	51m Dulles	IAD 08:14 → DEN 10:12UA 797	6h 27m	93%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON