Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2527 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34%.

Safest bet that day AA 2527 BOS 06:00 → DFW 09:22 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2305 BOS 19:20 → DFW 22:39 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2527 American Flight history →	BOS 06:00	DFW 09:22	7%	3%	1.0%	91%
AA 701 American Flight history →	BOS 08:01	DFW 11:21	11%	3%	1.0%	91%
DL 760 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:15	DFW 10:23	12%	3%	0.6%	78%
AA 1209 American	BOS 08:33	DFW 11:44	14%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 479 American Flight history →	BOS 09:01	DFW 12:19	15%	4%	1.0%	85%
AA 1438 American Flight history →	BOS 13:02	DFW 16:10	24%	6%	1.4%	69%
AA 1442 American Flight history →	BOS 14:37	DFW 17:44	27%	9%	1.7%	58%
AA 3102 American Flight history →	BOS 17:02	DFW 20:18	34%	10%	2.6%	70%
DL 2305 Delta Flight history →	BOS 19:20	DFW 22:39	34%	17%	3.2%	67%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	57m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → DFW 10:24DL 2746	5h 54m	95%	79%
American Details →	BOS 06:01 → JFK 07:27AA 4357 · flown by Republic	48m New York	JFK 08:15 → DFW 11:11AA 2234	6h 10m	92%	78%
Delta Details →	BOS 10:02 → LGA 11:31DL 5744 · flown by Republic	58m New York	LGA 12:29 → DFW 15:10DL 869	6h 08m	89%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON