Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1019 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 1019 BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest B6 1337 BOS 20:33 → DTW 22:45 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1019 Delta Flight history →	BOS 05:30	DTW 07:38	4%	2%	0.6%	95%
DL 1748 Delta Flight history →	BOS 09:10	DTW 11:19	10%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 2222 Delta Flight history →	BOS 13:09	DTW 15:20	15%	4%	0.6%	81%
B6 1237 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 11:16	DTW 13:37	20%	6%	0.7%	65%
DL 1432 Delta Flight history →	BOS 17:35	DTW 19:55	23%	7%	0.6%	70%
B6 1337 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 20:33	DTW 22:45	28%	11%	0.8%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON