Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1833 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 1833 BOS 06:05 → EWR 07:29 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest YX 3420 BOS 17:53 → EWR 19:48 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1833 United Flight history →	BOS 06:05	EWR 07:29	5%	2%	1.1%	94%
DL 5764 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 07:39	EWR 09:11	6%	2%	1.8%	94%
UA 570 United Flight history →	BOS 08:00	EWR 09:23	8%	3%	1.2%	90%
YX 3431 Republic	BOS 10:49	EWR 12:12	12%	4%	1.8%	no record
UA 3880 United	BOS 10:25	EWR 11:58	12%	6%	1.2%	no record
YX 3558 Republic	BOS 20:24	EWR 22:21	15%	8%	2.2%	no record
UA 2104 United	BOS 12:33	EWR 14:04	19%	12%	1.2%	no record
YX 3436 Republic	BOS 15:42	EWR 17:41	22%	10%	1.8%	no record
YX 3420 Republic	BOS 17:53	EWR 19:48	25%	10%	2.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON