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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: B6 569 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–38%.

Safest bet that day B6 569 BOS 05:10 → FLL 08:30 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest B6 269 BOS 14:51 → FLL 18:18 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
B6 569 JetBlue Flight history → BOS 05:10 FLL 08:30 16% 3% 4.5% 82%
DL 1401 Delta Flight history → BOS 07:55 FLL 11:24 20% 4% 2.1% 82%
G4 3473 Allegiant BOS 10:13 FLL 13:54 25% 11% 2.7% no record
DL 2196 Delta Flight history → BOS 14:00 FLL 17:26 28% 8% 1.8% 62%
B6 69 JetBlue Flight history → BOS 08:41 FLL 12:06 29% 8% 5.6% 68%
B6 2969 JetBlue Flight history → BOS 16:54 FLL 20:19 37% 13% 2.3% 70%
B6 369 JetBlue Flight history → BOS 18:13 FLL 21:38 38% 15% 2.6% 62%
B6 269 JetBlue Flight history → BOS 14:51 FLL 18:18 39% 13% 2.6% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON