Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1734 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 1734 BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 2136 BOS 19:27 → IAD 21:16 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1734 United Flight history →	BOS 05:45	IAD 07:23	3%	1%	0.6%	97%
UA 2098 United Flight history →	BOS 09:25	IAD 11:07	7%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 721 United Flight history →	BOS 14:15	IAD 15:57	12%	5%	0.6%	78%
UA 2136 United Flight history →	BOS 19:27	IAD 21:16	22%	9%	0.6%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON