Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 226 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 226 BOS 07:25 → IAH 10:35 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 2033 BOS 09:15 → IAH 12:23 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 226 United Flight history →	BOS 07:25	IAH 10:35	9%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 396 United	BOS 10:02	IAH 13:27	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1976 United Flight history →	BOS 13:37	IAH 16:57	13%	5%	0.6%	90%
UA 1183 United Flight history →	BOS 15:54	IAH 19:08	16%	7%	0.6%	71%
B6 2033 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 09:15	IAH 12:23	22%	5%	0.6%	73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	1h 02m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → IAH 10:37DL 1043	6h 07m	97%	83%
United Details →	BOS 19:27 → IAD 21:16UA 2136	1h 00m Dulles	IAD 22:16 → IAH 00:25 +1UA 1463	5h 58m	78%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON