Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 5597 at 09:31 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 5597 BOS 09:31 → JAX 12:30 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest B6 509 BOS 17:09 → JAX 20:05 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5597 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 09:31	JAX 12:30	12%	3%	0.8%	83%
DL 5657 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 16:00	JAX 19:06	16%	6%	1.0%	76%
B6 109 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:56	JAX 11:54	20%	5%	1.1%	85%
B6 509 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 17:09	JAX 20:05	29%	13%	1.5%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON