Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 4357 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 4357 BOS 06:01 → JFK 07:27 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest B6 817 BOS 19:05 → JFK 20:31 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4357 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 06:01	JFK 07:27	4%	2%	0.9%	100%
DL 2611 Delta Flight history →	BOS 06:05	JFK 07:30	4%	2%	0.7%	93%
B6 917 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 07:11	JFK 08:31	10%	3%	1.0%	94%
B6 1017 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:41	JFK 09:59	12%	5%	1.0%	67%
B6 8366 JetBlue	BOS 00:59	JFK 02:20	13%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 4687 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 11:37	JFK 13:03	14%	5%	1.9%	66%
DL 5808 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 13:35	JFK 15:10	19%	6%	1.2%	76%
B6 1117 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 11:23	JFK 12:46	22%	8%	1.6%	75%
DL 5814 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:05	JFK 18:42	24%	8%	1.3%	66%
YX 4745 Republic	BOS 17:29	JFK 19:03	24%	8%	1.3%	no record
B6 717 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 12:45	JFK 14:00	26%	11%	1.1%	62%
DL 5702 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 19:30	JFK 21:04	28%	9%	1.5%	66%
B6 317 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:43	JFK 18:03	33%	14%	1.4%	60%
B6 817 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:05	JFK 20:31	38%	14%	1.3%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON