Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 479 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 479 BOS 06:20 → LAX 09:35 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest B6 1187 BOS 17:30 → LAX 20:44 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 479 Delta Flight history →	BOS 06:20	LAX 09:35	9%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 2004 Delta Flight history →	BOS 10:55	LAX 14:03	12%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 360 United Flight history →	BOS 07:20	LAX 10:36	14%	3%	0.6%	92%
AA 2455 American Flight history →	BOS 07:00	LAX 10:19	15%	3%	0.7%	87%
B6 287 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:00	LAX 09:09	15%	2%	0.6%	85%
UA 233 United	BOS 14:42	LAX 18:02	15%	7%	0.6%	no record
DL 318 Delta Flight history →	BOS 16:25	LAX 19:44	16%	6%	0.6%	74%
AA 2141 American	BOS 10:32	LAX 13:40	17%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1578 American Flight history →	BOS 17:33	LAX 20:55	26%	7%	0.7%	67%
B6 387 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 20:25	LAX 23:39	26%	8%	0.6%	69%
B6 1187 JetBlue	BOS 17:30	LAX 20:44	28%	9%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	9h 12m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	8h 15m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	BOS 07:45 → DEN 10:21DL 499	2h 02m Denver	DEN 12:23 → LAX 13:50DL 2148	9h 05m	99%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON