Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: YX 9931 at 06:46 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–19%.

Safest bet that day YX 9931 BOS 06:46 → LGA 08:10 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 5831 BOS 17:05 → LGA 18:29 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 9931 Republic	BOS 06:46	LGA 08:10	4%	2%	1.1%	no record
DL 2524 Delta	BOS 06:56	LGA 08:13	4%	2%	1.1%	no record
AA 4470 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 07:01	LGA 08:25	6%	2%	1.1%	78%
DL 5744 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 10:02	LGA 11:31	7%	2%	1.4%	86%
YX 4386 Republic	BOS 12:27	LGA 13:50	9%	6%	1.7%	no record
DL 5854 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 12:59	LGA 14:39	10%	6%	1.4%	71%
AA 4430 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 16:05	LGA 17:36	17%	9%	1.6%	60%
DL 5831 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:05	LGA 18:29	19%	9%	2.4%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON