tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 4715 at 16:47, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4715 American flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 16:47 MDT 18:36 15% 6% 0.8% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Harrisburg on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → BOS 06:03 → PHL 07:45AA 1540 1h 15m Philadelphia PHL 09:00 → MDT 10:08AA 6117 · flown by Piedmont 4h 05m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242 1h 24m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → MDT 11:39DL 1248 6h 09m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → BOS 06:05 → CLT 08:30AA 418 2h 50m Charlotte CLT 11:20 → MDT 13:12AA 6134 · flown by Piedmont 7h 07m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → BOS 09:25 → IAD 11:07UA 2098 1h 38m Dulles IAD 12:45 → MDT 13:50UA 4372 · flown by CommuteAir 4h 25m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → BOS 08:03 → PHL 09:40AA 2764 3h 15m Philadelphia PHL 12:55 → MDT 14:00AA 5963 · flown by Piedmont 5h 57m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → BOS 10:15 → ATL 13:04DL 385 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 15:41 → MDT 17:37DL 2857 7h 22m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → BOS 13:03 → PHL 14:44AA 2086 3h 06m Philadelphia PHL 17:50 → MDT 18:57AA 5949 · flown by Piedmont 5h 54m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → BOS 14:15 → IAD 15:57UA 721 1h 38m Dulles IAD 17:35 → MDT 18:44UA 4250 · flown by CommuteAir 4h 29m 95% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BOS 15:14 → PHL 16:53AA 1776 57m Philadelphia PHL 17:50 → MDT 18:57AA 5949 · flown by Piedmont 3h 43m 74% 56%
AmericanDetails → BOS 17:05 → PHL 18:49AA 3309 56m Philadelphia PHL 19:45 → MDT 21:03AA 6109 · flown by Piedmont 3h 55m 71% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON