Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 5594 at 14:58, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5594 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:58	MEM 17:23	17%	5%	1.1%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	3h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 11:05 → MEM 13:17DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest	8h 22m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	2h 35m Detroit	DTW 10:13 → MEM 11:15DL 1627	6h 45m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BOS 14:52 → MSP 17:05DL 1127	3h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest	8h 23m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	8h 02m	100%	85%
American Details →	BOS 06:03 → PHL 07:45AA 1540	2h 58m Philadelphia	PHL 10:43 → MEM 12:11AA 5040 · flown by PSA	7h 08m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MEM 15:09DL 1700	8h 09m	99%	82%
American Details →	BOS 15:14 → PHL 16:53AA 1776	3h 17m Philadelphia	PHL 20:10 → MEM 22:06AA 5387 · flown by PSA	7h 52m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	BOS 10:15 → ATL 13:04DL 385	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 16:33 → MEM 16:56DL 1681	7h 41m	99%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BOS 17:02 → DFW 20:18AA 3102	1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:25 → MEM 23:07AA 1758	7h 05m	71%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON