Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1418 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 1418 BOS 05:10 → MIA 08:38 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 1184 BOS 18:18 → MIA 21:52 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1418 American Flight history →	BOS 05:10	MIA 08:38	10%	2%	1.2%	96%
AA 1865 American	BOS 05:01	MIA 08:31	11%	2%	1.2%	no record
DL 1399 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:05	MIA 10:39	15%	3%	0.8%	86%
AA 1259 American Flight history →	BOS 08:00	MIA 11:34	16%	3%	1.2%	90%
AA 2980 American Flight history →	BOS 11:08	MIA 14:40	25%	4%	1.1%	94%worse than usual
YX 4665 Republic	BOS 13:13	MIA 16:53	26%	6%	1.0%	no record
DL 776 Delta Flight history →	BOS 15:15	MIA 18:58	28%	8%	1.0%	64%
AA 1184 American	BOS 18:18	MIA 21:52	35%	9%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON