Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 5603 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 12:05	MSN 13:59	10%	3%	0.8%	85%
YX 4676 Republic	BOS 15:46	MSN 17:42	14%	4%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 11:53 → MSN 12:54DL 2681	8h 24m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	2h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 10:12 → MSN 11:19DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest	6h 24m	99%	86%
American Details →	BOS 07:01 → DCA 09:04AA 4342 · flown by Republic	1h 03m Washington	DCA 10:07 → MSN 11:36AA 5221 · flown by PSA	5h 35m	94%	83%
American Details →	BOS 08:58 → ORD 11:00AA 1239	2h 59m Chicago	ORD 13:59 → MSN 15:05AA 4038 · flown by Envoy	7h 07m	96%	81%
American Details →	BOS 15:14 → PHL 16:53AA 1776	3h 59m Philadelphia	PHL 20:52 → MSN 22:27AA 5512 · flown by PSA	8h 13m	98%	81%
American Details →	BOS 06:05 → CLT 08:30AA 418	3h 57m Charlotte	CLT 12:27 → MSN 13:42AA 2443	8h 37m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	BOS 15:10 → ATL 18:10DL 638	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 21:32 → MSN 22:38DL 2144	8h 28m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	BOS 17:55 → MSP 20:21DL 1098	1h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 21:24 → MSN 22:31DL 1599	5h 36m	86%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON