tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 1398 Delta Flight history → BOS 11:20 MSY 13:56 15% 3% 0.6% 85%
B6 401 JetBlue Flight history → BOS 11:38 MSY 14:11 21% 6% 0.7% 74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 7h 07m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019 1h 12m Detroit DTW 08:50 → MSY 10:24DL 2790 5h 54m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → BOS 11:52 → MSP 14:04DL 1103 1h 32m Minneapolis MSP 15:36 → MSY 18:20DL 2695 7h 28m 96% 84%
AmericanDetails → BOS 07:01 → DCA 09:04AA 4342 · flown by Republic 1h 58m Washington DCA 11:02 → MSY 12:52AA 2586 6h 51m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → BOS 07:25 → IAH 10:35UA 226 1h 20m Houston IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385 6h 49m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157 7h 17m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → BOS 09:05 → ATL 11:55DL 456 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146 7h 52m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → BOS 12:30 → ATL 15:21DL 2779 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 17:56 → MSY 18:34DL 678 7h 04m 100% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BOS 07:45 → DEN 10:19UA 647 46m Denver DEN 11:05 → MSY 14:47UA 2273 8h 02m 73% 61%
AmericanDetails → BOS 17:05 → PHL 18:49AA 3309 55m Philadelphia PHL 19:44 → MSY 22:06AA 549 6h 01m 71% 56%
JetBlueDetails → BOS 16:54 → FLL 20:19B6 2969 57m Fort Lauderdale FLL 21:16 → MSY 22:24B6 2823 6h 30m 56% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON