Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 25 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1414 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–45%.

Safest bet that day UA 1414 BOS 06:00 → ORD 07:58 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest B6 811 BOS 16:57 → ORD 18:55 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1414 United Flight history →	BOS 06:00	ORD 07:58	6%	2%	0.6%	95%
AA 3324 American Flight history →	BOS 05:10	ORD 07:04	6%	2%	0.8%	92%
UA 2631 United Flight history →	BOS 07:19	ORD 09:17	11%	4%	0.6%	91%
AA 1239 American Flight history →	BOS 08:58	ORD 11:00	11%	3%	0.8%	93%
AA 1509 American Flight history →	BOS 07:00	ORD 09:01	12%	3%	0.8%	90%
DL 2570 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:30	ORD 09:26	12%	3%	0.7%	82%
UA 1349 United Flight history →	BOS 09:50	ORD 11:43	12%	5%	0.6%	87%
UA 503 United Flight history →	BOS 10:31	ORD 12:22	14%	6%	0.6%	86%
UA 1097 United	BOS 07:53	ORD 09:39	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
B6 111 JetBlue	BOS 06:49	ORD 08:45	16%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 1732 United Flight history →	BOS 12:30	ORD 14:24	16%	6%	0.6%	85%
AA 2607 American	BOS 10:33	ORD 12:26	18%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 3048 American Flight history →	BOS 12:08	ORD 14:01	21%	6%	0.8%	81%
UA 2229 United Flight history →	BOS 20:20	ORD 22:20	21%	9%	0.6%	57%
AA 1563 American Flight history →	BOS 15:28	ORD 17:38	23%	7%	0.8%	52%
UA 1475 United Flight history →	BOS 15:08	ORD 17:00	23%	9%	0.6%	65%
DL 2646 Delta Flight history →	BOS 13:30	ORD 15:23	25%	8%	0.9%	61%
AA 547 American Flight history →	BOS 13:37	ORD 15:26	26%	7%	0.8%	74%
AA 1479 American Flight history →	BOS 16:32	ORD 18:36	30%	8%	0.8%	50%
UA 563 United	BOS 16:58	ORD 18:46	33%	10%	0.6%	no record
AA 3160 American	BOS 19:20	ORD 21:26	33%	9%	0.9%	no record
AA 2837 American Flight history →	BOS 18:19	ORD 20:30	33%	9%	0.9%	40%
DL 2804 Delta Flight history →	BOS 17:59	ORD 19:57	34%	10%	0.8%	47%
UA 1015 United Flight history →	BOS 18:43	ORD 20:40	35%	11%	0.6%	51%
B6 811 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:57	ORD 18:55	45%	14%	0.8%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON