Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 5794 BOS 08:33 → ORF 10:33 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 1813 BOS 15:29 → ORF 17:12 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 5794 Republic	BOS 08:33	ORF 10:33	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 5858 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:05	ORF 16:00	12%	4%	0.7%	79%
B6 1813 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 15:29	ORF 17:12	18%	8%	0.7%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON