Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1580 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–40%.

Safest bet that day DL 1580 BOS 07:05 → MCO 10:11 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 451 BOS 19:20 → MCO 22:35 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1580 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:05	MCO 10:11	12%	3%	4.3%	91%
AA 2720 American	BOS 09:06	MCO 12:22	16%	5%	4.8%	no record
F9 1977 Frontier Flight history →	BOS 11:31	MCO 14:46	19%	4%	1.7%	89%
DL 2887 Delta Flight history →	BOS 15:27	MCO 18:54	19%	6%	1.0%	73%
B6 351 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:00	MCO 11:09	20%	5%	4.7%	85%
B6 651 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 10:37	MCO 13:46	21%	6%	4.7%	80%
DL 1513 Delta Flight history →	BOS 19:29	MCO 22:48	26%	9%	1.0%	68%
B6 2251 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 13:44	MCO 17:00	28%	10%	2.2%	75%
B6 251 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 20:15	MCO 23:28	32%	16%	1.6%	52%
B6 551 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 17:16	MCO 20:30	36%	15%	1.7%	66%
B6 451 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:20	MCO 22:35	40%	18%	1.8%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON