Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1540 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 1540 BOS 06:03 → PHL 07:45 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 3309 BOS 17:05 → PHL 18:49 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1540 American Flight history →	BOS 06:03	PHL 07:45	6%	3%	0.8%	91%
DL 5845 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 07:20	PHL 09:02	7%	2%	0.7%	89%
B6 1159 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 07:00	PHL 08:30	9%	3%	0.7%	93%
AA 4643 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 11:13	PHL 12:39	10%	3%	0.7%	80%
DL 5706 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:30	PHL 16:12	10%	5%	0.8%	78%
AA 2764 American Flight history →	BOS 08:03	PHL 09:40	12%	3%	0.8%	91%
DL 5714 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:20	PHL 19:15	17%	6%	0.9%	66%
B6 1859 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 13:23	PHL 15:07	20%	9%	0.8%	69%
AA 2086 American Flight history →	BOS 13:03	PHL 14:44	21%	6%	0.7%	75%
B6 2459 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:11	PHL 17:55	21%	10%	0.8%	69%
AA 1776 American Flight history →	BOS 15:14	PHL 16:53	25%	7%	0.8%	72%
AA 3309 American Flight history →	BOS 17:05	PHL 18:49	29%	9%	0.9%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON