Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 5678 at 09:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 5678 BOS 09:10 → PIT 11:11 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 2185 BOS 18:02 → PIT 20:07 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5678 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 09:10	PIT 11:11	5%	2%	0.6%	92%
B6 1585 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:20	PIT 08:25	8%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 5680 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 15:20	PIT 17:27	10%	4%	0.7%	81%
B6 385 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 10:32	PIT 12:33	14%	4%	0.7%	86%
YX 5639 Republic	BOS 19:01	PIT 20:53	15%	5%	0.8%	no record
B6 2185 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 18:02	PIT 20:07	29%	10%	0.7%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON