Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1106 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 1106 BOS 08:40 → RDU 10:49 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2783 BOS 18:09 → RDU 20:21 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1106 Delta	BOS 08:40	RDU 10:49	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2283 Delta Flight history →	BOS 13:03	RDU 15:09	15%	4%	0.6%	83%
B6 2083 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 07:58	RDU 10:13	18%	5%	0.8%	85%
B6 2283 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 11:51	RDU 14:01	21%	6%	0.8%	78%
B6 2383 JetBlue	BOS 14:36	RDU 16:41	24%	9%	0.8%	no record
DL 2782 Delta Flight history →	BOS 18:50	RDU 21:06	25%	10%	0.7%	75%
B6 2783 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 18:09	RDU 20:21	35%	14%	0.9%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON