Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 4171 at 09:55 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–17%.

Safest bet that day AA 4171 BOS 09:55 → ROC 11:30 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest YX 4475 BOS 18:53 → ROC 20:22 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4171 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BOS 09:55	ROC 11:30	6%	2%	0.7%	94%
YX 9933 Republic	BOS 09:10	ROC 10:51	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
YX 4475 Republic	BOS 18:53	ROC 20:22	17%	6%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON