Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: B6 219 at 09:30 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–29%.

Safest bet that day B6 219 BOS 09:30 → SAN 12:35 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AS 389 BOS 18:12 → SAN 21:28 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 219 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 09:30	SAN 12:35	18%	4%	0.6%	89%
AS 256 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 08:28	SAN 11:43	20%	3%	0.7%	85%
B6 319 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:20	SAN 19:27	22%	6%	0.7%	79%
DL 571 Delta Flight history →	BOS 17:10	SAN 20:25	28%	7%	0.6%	70%
WN 814 Southwest	BOS 13:42	SAN 17:05	28%	6%	0.8%	no record
AS 389 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 18:12	SAN 21:28	29%	6%	0.7%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 06:05 → JFK 07:30DL 2611	1h 10m New York	JFK 08:40 → SAN 11:32DL 683	8h 27m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	BOS 06:05 → SLC 09:17DL 859	1h 53m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296	9h 03m	99%	82%
United Details →	BOS 09:25 → IAD 11:07UA 2098	1h 33m Dulles	IAD 12:40 → SAN 15:03UA 2163	8h 38m	97%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON