tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Bush, leaving 15:54, is the safest bet: 65% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 816 Delta Flight history → BOS 09:20 SAT 12:44 13% 4% 0.6% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 9h 08m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → BOS 07:45 → DEN 10:19UA 647 3h 25m Denver DEN 13:44 → SAT 16:55UA 1022 10h 10m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303 49m Minneapolis MSP 08:53 → SAT 11:46DL 2667 6h 51m 92% 84%
DeltaDetails → BOS 06:05 → JFK 07:30DL 2611 1h 00m New York JFK 08:30 → SAT 11:42DL 1166 6h 37m 96% 83%
AmericanDetails → BOS 07:00 → PHX 09:33AA 2315 2h 50m Phoenix PHX 12:23 → SAT 16:47AA 570 10h 47m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → BOS 06:00 → ORD 07:58UA 1414 1h 27m Chicago ORD 09:25 → SAT 12:29UA 490 7h 29m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → BOS 14:52 → MSP 17:05DL 1127 1h 30m Minneapolis MSP 18:35 → SAT 21:26DL 2773 7h 34m 95% 80%
UnitedDetails → BOS 08:00 → EWR 09:23UA 570 2h 57m Newark EWR 12:20 → SAT 15:21UA 515 8h 21m 99% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BOS 17:55 → ATL 21:07DL 2464 48m Atlanta ATL 21:55 → SAT 23:21DL 1508 6h 26m 74% 57%
AmericanDetails → BOS 11:40 → CLT 13:53AA 1557 56m Charlotte CLT 14:49 → SAT 16:50AA 2934 6h 10m 73% 55%
AmericanDetails → BOS 14:37 → DFW 17:44AA 1442 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:46 → SAT 20:01AA 2368 6h 24m 74% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON