Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


YX 4362 Republic	BOS 10:01	SDF 12:44	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 5615 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 13:30	SDF 16:19	8%	3%	0.6%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → SDF 12:31DL 1481	7h 01m	100%	90%
American Details →	BOS 15:14 → PHL 16:53AA 1776	3h 51m Philadelphia	PHL 20:44 → SDF 23:03AA 4335 · flown by Republic	7h 49m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 13:46 → SDF 15:05DL 3195	7h 05m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	BOS 08:16 → MSP 10:25DL 1308	2h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 12:42 → SDF 15:39DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest	7h 23m	96%	85%
American Details →	BOS 06:05 → CLT 08:30AA 418	2h 05m Charlotte	CLT 10:35 → SDF 12:16AA 5145 · flown by PSA	6h 11m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	BOS 12:30 → ATL 15:21DL 2779	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → SDF 19:13DL 2831	6h 43m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	BOS 09:05 → ATL 11:55DL 456	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → SDF 17:15DL 1126	8h 10m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	BOS 13:55 → ATL 16:49DL 322	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 20:39 → SDF 22:07DL 2842	8h 12m	99%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BOS 16:32 → ORD 18:36AA 1479	53m Chicago	ORD 19:29 → SDF 22:04AA 4603 · flown by Republic	5h 32m	66%	54%
United Details →	BOS 15:08 → ORD 17:00UA 1475	50m Chicago	ORD 17:50 → SDF 20:23UA 3598 · flown by Republic	5h 15m	66%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON