Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 384 at 07:53 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–34%.

Safest bet that day DL 384 BOS 07:53 → SEA 11:16 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AS 306 BOS 18:35 → SEA 21:58 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 384 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:53	SEA 11:16	13%	3%	0.7%	77%
B6 397 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:31	SEA 23:16	18%	11%	0.8%	89%
DL 332 Delta Flight history →	BOS 11:29	SEA 14:49	19%	4%	0.6%	78%
AS 215 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 09:21	SEA 12:44	20%	4%	0.7%	64%
DL 324 Delta Flight history →	BOS 18:50	SEA 22:25	21%	9%	0.7%	67%
AS 459 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 07:03	SEA 10:26	23%	4%	0.8%	75%
AS 288 Alaska	BOS 16:57	SEA 20:20	31%	7%	0.7%	no record
AS 306 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 18:35	SEA 21:58	34%	10%	0.7%	60%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	8h 04m	97%	86%
United Details →	BOS 09:25 → IAD 11:07UA 2098	2h 00m Dulles	IAD 13:07 → SEA 15:54UA 1824	9h 29m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	BOS 11:52 → MSP 14:04DL 1103	1h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	8h 08m	94%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON