Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 977 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 977 BOS 07:20 → SFO 10:51 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest UA 2400 BOS 18:17 → SFO 21:53 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 977 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:20	SFO 10:51	16%	4%	0.6%	82%
B6 633 JetBlue	BOS 06:43	SFO 10:24	17%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 726 United	BOS 09:16	SFO 12:48	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2317 United	BOS 07:43	SFO 11:13	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 860 Delta Flight history →	BOS 11:05	SFO 14:34	20%	5%	0.6%	51%
UA 1074 United Flight history →	BOS 11:35	SFO 15:02	21%	6%	0.6%	80%
UA 1367 United Flight history →	BOS 13:50	SFO 17:24	22%	8%	0.6%	84%
DL 1655 Delta Flight history →	BOS 17:05	SFO 20:51	23%	9%	0.6%	69%
B6 413 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 20:55	SFO 00:30	26%	11%	0.7%	31%
B6 1633 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:59	SFO 20:58	27%	11%	0.7%	42%
B6 733 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 13:07	SFO 17:04	28%	10%	0.7%	59%
UA 2400 United Flight history →	BOS 18:17	SFO 21:53	33%	11%	0.6%	57%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734	1h 12m Dulles	IAD 08:35 → SFO 11:19UA 1147	8h 34m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	BOS 06:05 → JFK 07:30DL 2611	1h 30m New York	JFK 09:00 → SFO 12:19DL 669	9h 14m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	1h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 09:24 → SFO 11:32DL 2078	8h 37m	98%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON