Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 859 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 859 BOS 06:05 → SLC 09:17 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 445 BOS 16:30 → SLC 19:57 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 859 Delta Flight history →	BOS 06:05	SLC 09:17	6%	2%	0.5%	89%
DL 464 Delta Flight history →	BOS 11:15	SLC 14:23	15%	3%	0.5%	78%
DL 445 Delta Flight history →	BOS 16:30	SLC 19:57	16%	6%	0.5%	72%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	47m Detroit	DTW 08:25 → SLC 10:21DL 698	6h 51m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	BOS 14:52 → MSP 17:05DL 1127	1h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → SLC 20:06DL 2607	7h 14m	91%	81%
United Details →	BOS 07:45 → DEN 10:19UA 647	1h 26m Denver	DEN 11:45 → SLC 13:18UA 1963	7h 33m	97%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON