Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: JetBlue via San Juan, leaving 09:10, is the safest bet: 48% chance of reaching Charlotte Amalie on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 807 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:55	STT 12:59	25%	6%	0.7%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte Amalie on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734	1h 28m Dulles	IAD 08:51 → STT 12:58UA 1443	7h 13m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → STT 13:49DL 1899	8h 19m	100%	75%
American Details →	BOS 08:05 → CLT 10:30AA 2715	2h 02m Charlotte	CLT 12:32 → STT 16:24AA 2004	8h 19m	93%	73%
American Details →	BOS 05:10 → MIA 08:38AA 1418	1h 27m Miami	MIA 10:05 → STT 13:02AA 943	7h 52m	97%	69%
JetBlue Details →	BOS 09:10 → SJU 13:11B6 861	1h 09m San Juan	SJU 14:20 → STT 14:57B6 936	5h 47m	76%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON