Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AA 4635 at 09:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4635 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 09:10	SYR 10:40	6%	2%	0.6%	96%
B6 845 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 21:35	SYR 22:51	28%	12%	0.8%	61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Syracuse on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 06:05 → JFK 07:30DL 2611	1h 40m New York	JFK 09:10 → SYR 10:41DL 5436 · flown by Endeavor	4h 36m	99%	85%
American Details →	BOS 08:03 → PHL 09:40AA 2764	3h 32m Philadelphia	PHL 13:12 → SYR 14:34AA 5924 · flown by Piedmont	6h 31m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 09:23 → SYR 11:33DL 1375	6h 03m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 13:05 → SYR 15:16DL 2991	7h 16m	99%	81%
United Details →	BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734	1h 06m Dulles	IAD 08:29 → SYR 09:55UA 4370 · flown by CommuteAir	4h 10m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	BOS 11:52 → MSP 14:04DL 1103	1h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 15:34 → SYR 18:52DL 2546	7h 00m	96%	81%
United Details →	BOS 09:25 → IAD 11:07UA 2098	1h 38m Dulles	IAD 12:45 → SYR 14:15UA 4360 · flown by CommuteAir	4h 50m	98%	77%
American Details →	BOS 06:03 → PHL 07:45AA 1540	1h 12m Philadelphia	PHL 08:57 → SYR 10:21AA 5982 · flown by Piedmont	4h 18m	95%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BOS 17:41 → DCA 19:39AA 1421	46m Washington	DCA 20:25 → SYR 22:04AA 5456 · flown by PSA	4h 23m	71%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON