Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2706 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 2706 BOS 07:00 → TPA 10:18 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 591 BOS 21:03 → TPA 00:22 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2706 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:00	TPA 10:18	8%	3%	2.2%	91%
B6 691 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:54	TPA 10:29	12%	3%	3.2%	84%
DL 1439 Delta Flight history →	BOS 11:08	TPA 14:23	19%	4%	1.0%	73%
B6 791 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 11:17	TPA 14:51	24%	6%	1.7%	80%
DL 2234 Delta Flight history →	BOS 19:10	TPA 22:35	25%	9%	1.0%	65%
B6 591 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 21:03	TPA 00:22	35%	13%	1.8%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON