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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 05:55, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Traverse City on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303 2h 25m Minneapolis MSP 10:29 → TVC 13:04DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest 7h 09m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019 52m Detroit DTW 08:30 → TVC 09:45DL 4721 · flown by Endeavor 4h 15m 95% 82%
UnitedDetails → BOS 06:00 → ORD 07:58UA 1414 1h 02m Chicago ORD 09:00 → TVC 11:37UA 4169 · flown by GoJet 5h 37m 94% 80%
DeltaDetails → BOS 17:35 → DTW 19:55DL 1432 1h 35m Detroit DTW 21:30 → TVC 22:41DL 2424 5h 06m 90% 72%
AmericanDetails → BOS 07:00 → ORD 09:01AA 1509 3h 11m Chicago ORD 12:12 → TVC 14:32AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest 7h 32m 97% 71%
UnitedDetails → BOS 15:08 → ORD 17:00UA 1475 3h 14m Chicago ORD 20:14 → TVC 22:25UA 677 7h 17m 91% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON