Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 1162 at 00:15, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1162 United Flight history →	BQN 00:15	EWR 04:12	24%	6%	1.4%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


JetBlue Details →	BQN 10:23 → MCO 13:35B6 729	3h 25m Orlando	MCO 17:00 → EWR 19:51B6 1728	9h 28m	99%	51%
JetBlue Details →	BQN 16:22 → FLL 19:15B6 2072	1h 40m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 20:55 → EWR 23:58B6 706	7h 36m	82%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON