Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


F9 1097 Frontier Flight history →	BQN 12:19	MCO 15:20	18%	6%	4.0%	79%
B6 729 JetBlue Flight history →	BQN 10:23	MCO 13:35	20%	8%	6.3%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BQN 00:15 → EWR 04:12UA 1162	2h 18m Newark	EWR 06:30 → MCO 09:16UA 788	9h 01m	97%	81%
JetBlue Details →	BQN 05:59 → JFK 10:13B6 538	2h 02m New York	JFK 12:15 → MCO 15:10B6 83	9h 11m	96%	67%
JetBlue Details →	BQN 16:22 → FLL 19:15B6 2072	1h 44m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 20:59 → MCO 22:09B6 1948	5h 47m	83%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON