Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2664 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 2664 BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:10 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest F9 1407 BUF 16:17 → ATL 18:40 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2664 Delta Flight history →	BUF 06:00	ATL 08:10	10%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 1384 Delta Flight history →	BUF 12:16	ATL 14:22	19%	4%	0.7%	84%
DL 2266 Delta Flight history →	BUF 17:18	ATL 19:29	26%	8%	3.4%	80%
F9 1407 Frontier Flight history →	BUF 16:17	ATL 18:40	35%	17%	2.9%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON