tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3793 at 09:58 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3793 Southwest BUF 09:58 BNA 11:05 7% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 715 Southwest BUF 18:10 BNA 19:18 18% 7% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 2664 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 6h 30m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01AA 1204 2h 39m Charlotte CLT 10:40 → BNA 11:09AA 1295 6h 08m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:59 → JFK 08:40DL 5284 · flown by Endeavor 2h 54m New York JFK 11:34 → BNA 12:53DL 4662 · flown by Endeavor 6h 54m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898 1h 02m Detroit DTW 08:44 → BNA 09:25DL 2682 3h 56m 92% 81%
UnitedDetails → BUF 07:01 → ORD 07:52UA 543 2h 45m Chicago ORD 10:37 → BNA 12:29UA 2414 6h 28m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → BUF 11:05 → JFK 12:22DL 5223 · flown by Endeavor 3h 43m New York JFK 16:05 → BNA 17:45DL 4909 · flown by Endeavor 7h 40m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → BUF 11:51 → LGA 13:21AA 4363 · flown by Republic 1h 31m New York LGA 14:52 → BNA 16:27AA 4380 · flown by Republic 5h 36m 93% 74%
AmericanDetails → BUF 16:30 → CLT 18:25AA 2442 3h 40m Charlotte CLT 22:05 → BNA 22:32AA 1644 7h 02m 97% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BUF 17:18 → ATL 19:29DL 2266 54m Atlanta ATL 20:23 → BNA 20:34DL 3002 4h 16m 61% 45%
AmericanDetails → BUF 16:46 → DFW 19:10AA 1724 1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:15 → BNA 22:10AA 3230 6h 24m 74% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON