Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 4788 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 4788 BUF 05:58 → BOS 07:51 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 516 BUF 19:00 → BOS 20:39 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4788 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BUF 05:58	BOS 07:51	3%	2%	0.7%	93%
AA 4666 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BUF 10:33	BOS 12:15	6%	3%	0.7%	94%
B6 716 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 06:00	BOS 07:25	6%	3%	0.9%	82%
YX 5864 Republic	BUF 13:05	BOS 14:46	13%	6%	1.0%	no record
B6 916 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 14:22	BOS 16:02	23%	12%	1.1%	65%
B6 516 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 19:00	BOS 20:39	29%	16%	1.4%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON